United Kingdom – Brexit for UK Residents
With less than 50 days to Brexit, the increasingly polarized state of British politics has reared its ugly head once again. As flawed as embattled prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is to many, Chancellor Philip Hammond’s statement that Britain would reap a “deal dividend” if it avoided a no-deal exit should not have been controversial, as it was premised on the simple economic truth that more clarity on the future UK-EU trading relationship would be good for the economy as many business projects currently on hold would come to fruition. But controversial it was, especially after recent Treasury data showing the economy grew by just 0.2% during the final three months of 2018, three times lower than third quarter growth. Figures from the Office for National Statistics compounded this misery, confirming that business investment and corporate spending all fell significantly too in this period.
In spite of Labour’s calls to rule out a no-deal Brexit (a scenario that Tory backbenchers fear May could fall into if she accedes to negotiations with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn), it looks more and more likely. The economic effects of such an abrupt transition are likely to be severe. Already, Nissan has pulled the manufacture of a new SUV at its plant in Tyne and Wear, other car manufacturers are stockpiling parts, numerous banks have started shifting employees to Dublin and Frankfurt, and Panasonic and Sony have moved their EU headquarters to Amsterdam. Indeed, it’s never a good sign when your central bank warns of your slowest growth since the financial crisis, with a 25% chance of a recession by year end. Still hope remains that either May drops one or more of her “red lines” – perhaps by compromising her heretofore refusal to grant freedom of movement across borders – and the EU reciprocates by conceding ground on the thorny issue of the Irish backstop. If not, a no-confidence motion in the prime minister, if not a second referendum altogether, may be all that stops the economic hurt in the short- and medium-term.
The full article is available on H Fusion Media Group
Written by Roberto Pucciano for H Edition Magazine